The quarter gone by has seen a few macro developments. The PSU banks have been pressurized and rightly so by the RBI to classify Non Performing Assets and go after Corporates with huge debts. Corporates on their part are selling their assets or stakes in companies to bring down the interest outgo. The architect behind this clean up Mr. Raghuram Rajan has said that he will not seek a second term. This has created a sense of uncertainty in the short run with respect to the good work initiated by him. However Institutions are always bigger than the Individuals. The process to shortlist a replacement is already on. There is no dearth of talent in India but the intent and will to have an independent stand is what makes a difference. RBI, the Central Bank of India has always been an Institute that commands respect worldwide.
The govt. has relaxed norms for FDI in Aviation, Food, Defence, Pharma & single brand retail. Over time this will bring in more investment and assist in Job creation. The Seventh Pay Commission hikes announced will take effect from January 2016 with arrears. Select Malls and Stores can remain open 24×7 creating more jobs.
BREXIT came up with an unexpected vote for Britain to leave Europe. Experts are divided over the long term impact on India but in the short run there is lot of uncertainty in the currency market and rupee has also slipped. FIIs may take out some money in the immediate term from the markets.
The good news is the prediction of a better than normal monsoon even though it is a delayed one. If this happens, it will be the biggest plus for us. The Oil has rebounded from its bottom. Commodities like ferrous and non-ferrous metal have seen a good recovery. Coupled with this the whole sale and retail inflation has also gone up due to prices of vegetables, pulses, oil (freight) and so on. So a good monsoon may increase the agrarian productivity and ease food inflation. The possible increase in the rural demand for FMCG and white goods will give a fillip to the Industry.
With respect to Real Estate, the actual disbursement of the Seventh Pay commission is yet to happen. The govt. has said that it will happen in 2 parts. This when implemented will give clarity to the government employees to buy assets like Real Estate which require long term loan/commitment. Some cities are seeing a price uptick but overall the supply is still much more than what is being absorbed. As per reports, HNIs are more inclined towards commercial property.
Svayam Symphony & Svayam Sapphire have seen a steady foot fall of prospective customers. Construction is on at full swing. Our Sample houses are getting ready and once ready they will be a catalyst for customers to book. Since Real Estate is a major investment there are many customers who wish to see a ready product and buy.
Overall my sense is that H2 will be much better than H1 for us as well as the economy as a whole. We all look forward to the future and be ready to deliver when it matters.
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